75
Question

Do professional bettors actually exist or is it all bs

ok so my roommate keeps telling me he knows a guy who makes like 6 figures betting on sports full time and im calling bs on that. like how is that even possible when the house always wins right?? genuinely curious if anyone here actually knows someone who does this for real or if its all just people lying about their wins
Asked by broke_college_guy91
13 answers
123
midwest_degen
Yeah this is accurate. My buddy does it semi professionally and makes decent money but he literally spends like 6 hours a day analyzing lines and building spreadsheets. Not exactly living the dream lmao but hes definitely profitable over the last 3 years
8
realitycheckplz
idk man how do we know these people arent just on a hot streak? ive seen so many "professional bettors" on twitter blow up their bankrolls after a year or two. survivorship bias is real
68
closinglineking
nah bro thats the thing tho - if you track CLV consistently over thousands of bets its basically impossible to fake. like you can get lucky on outcomes sure but if youre consistently beating the closing line thats actual edge. ive been doing this for 4 years now and my CLV numbers prove its not just variance
73
frustrated_punter
honestly the whole thing feels rigged against you even if you ARE good. i started getting limited after literally 2 weeks of winning. like what's even the point of being skilled if they just ban you the second you show any edge? so frustrating
53
been_there_2019
That sucks but tbh thats why the real pros use tons of different books and also bet through agents in some cases. Getting limited is just part of the game, you gotta adapt. I've been limited at probably 15+ books at this point but still manage to get action down where it matters
31
newbie_questions
wait so if these guys are so good why dont they just bet more money and make millions? like whats stopping them
27
sharp_money_mike
liquidity basically. theres only so much money you can get down before you move the line yourself or get limited. the market is efficient enough that you cant just bet unlimited amounts. thats why even the best guys are making like 200-500k not tens of millions
8
statsguyfromwork
Fwiw there's actually academic research on this. Betting markets are considered pretty efficient but not perfectly so. The existence of closing line value and the fact that sharps do move lines suggests there's real skill involved, at least for the top maybe 1% of bettors.
3
throwaway_gambler_
from what ive read most of the truly successful pros are betting asian markets or working for syndicates. the retail US market is honestly pretty small potatoes for serious volume
18
reasonable_takes_only
I think the reality is somewhere in the middle. Yes pros exist, but theyre extremely rare and most people claiming to be professional are either lying, on a heater, or selling picks which is a whole other business model
15
old_school_handicapper
Been around this game 20+ years. Pros are real but the game has changed a lot. Used to be easier honestly, now algorithms make it much harder to find edges. The guys still doing it successfully are extremely smart and work harder than most people realize.
14
verified_degen
can confirm what the top comment said. my cousin quit his finance job to bet full time about 5 years ago and hes still doing it. not rich but makes like 80-100k consistently. boring as hell work according to him but hey its a living

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